FSB is an acronym for Fathers, Sons and Brothers, an FTDNA project that has been set up to gather haplotype comparisons as part of an attempt at Y-STR mutation rate estimation.
The TMRCA site will act as a temporary host for the analysis of the data in the FTDNA project until I’ve set up a separate site for this purpose.
As at 30 May 2012 a.m. Dunoon time, there were 24 father-son comparisons possible over 67 markers, which revealed 7 single-step mutations, or a mean mutation rate of 7/24 = 0.29.
An Excel spreadsheet showing the comparisons is at
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB67.xlt
The upper part of the file contains the working data, sans the annoying hyphens that are used by FTDNA. The lower part contains all possible father-son comparisons, both actual and implied by brother-brother comparisons. They are all arranged in the order father, son. Brother comparisons yield two father-son comparisons, and the notional father haplotype is allocated the kit number of 99999.
Update 30-05-2012 pm for 67-marker haplotypes :
No of comparisons : 26
No of mutations No of observations
0 18
1 8
2 or more 0
mean 0.308
95% binomial confidence interval 0.143 – 0.518
To put this in perspective, 80 mutations out of 180 comparisons would provide a 95% confidence interval of 0.252 – 0.368, so there’s a long way to go.
01 June 2012
Here is an Excel spreadsheet for 37-marker comparisons:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB37.xls
The format is the same as for 67 markers, with the working data at the top followed by all possible father-son comparisons (actual and implied). There were a total of 47 comparisons and the results are summarised as follows:
No of mutations No of observations
0 37
1 10
2 or more 0
mean 0.213
95% binomial confidence interval 0.1070 – 0.3566
Update 19 June 2012
No of No of father-son Mean no of mutations 95% binomial
markers comparisons per generation confidence interval
37 50 0.200 0.100 – 0.337
67 27 0.296 0.138 – 0.502
111 7 0.571 0.184 – 0.901
Update 16 July 2012
Instead of treating 37, 67, and 111 marker haplotypes as three separate studies, I’ve considered instead three separate marker panels and then added them to arrive at an estimate for the mutation rate for 111 markers :
Marker No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Rate Interval
1-37 52 0.1923 0.0963 – 0.3253
38-67 26 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1323
68-111 7 0.2857 0.0367 – 0.7096
1-111 0.4780 0.1330 – 1.1672
The work sheets for the three separate marker panels are at
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB1-37.xls
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB38-67.xls
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB68-111.xls
Update 9 August 2012
Montgomerys added (all three are 67 markers)
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 54 10 0.1852 0.0925 – 0.3143
38-67 28 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1234
68-111 7 2 0.2857 0.0367 – 0.7096
1-111 0.4709 0.1292 - 1.1473
So far all mutations are single-step and no fgather-son comparisons show more than one mutation.
Update 1 September 2012
Tilroe son upgrade to 111 markers, Durall father & son added (new, 111 markers), McGuire brothers added (new, 111 markers).
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 57 10 0.1754 0.0875 – 0.2991
38-67 31 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1122
68-111 11 3 0.2727 0.0602 – 0.6097
1-111 0.4481 0.1477 - 1.0210
So far there are 12 single-step and 1 two-step mutations. The father-son comparisons all show either no mutations or 1 mutation. The work sheets have been updated at :
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB1-37.xls
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB38-67.xls
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB68-111.xls
Update 7 September 2012
Coleman upgrade to 111 markers added.
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 57 10 0.1754 0.0875 – 0.2991
38-67 31 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1122
68-111 12 4 0.3333 0.0992 – 0.6511
1-111 0.5087 0.2352 - 1.0624
So far, out of 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.
Update 26 October 2012
Montgomery upgrade to 111 markers added.
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 57 10 0.1754 0.0875 – 0.2991
38-67 31 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1122
68-111 14 4 0.2857 0.0839 – 0.5810
1-111 0.4611 0.1714 - 0.9923
So far, out of 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.
Update 14 March 2013
Moore and Roberts fathers and sons added.
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 59 10 0.1695 0.0844 – 0.2897
38-67 32 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1089
68-111 15 4 0.2667 0.0779 - 0.5510
1-111 0.4362 0.1623 – 0.9496
Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.
Update 29 March 2013
Maher extension from 37 to 67 markers.
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 59 10 0.1695 0.0844 – 0.2897
38-67 33 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1058
68-111 15 4 0.2667 0.0779 - 0.5510
1-111 0.4362 0.1623 – 0.9465
Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.
The confidence intervals are calculated using the site at
http://statpages.org/confuint.html
Update 07 April 2013
Addition of Simpson father and son.
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 60 10 0.1667 0.0829 – 0.2852
38-67 33 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1058
68-111 15 4 0.2667 0.0779 - 0.5510
1-111 0.4334 0.1608 – 0.9420
Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation.
Update 19 May 2013
Maher extension to 111 markers.
Marker No of No of Mutation 95% Confidence
Panel Comparisons Mutations Rate Interval
1-37 60 10 0.1667 0.0829 – 0.2852
38-67 33 0 0.0000 0.0000 – 0.1058
68-111 16 4 0.2500 0.0727 - 0.5238
1-111 0.4167 0.1608 – 0.9148
Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation.