FSB

FSB is an acronym for Fathers, Sons and Brothers, an FTDNA project that has been set up to gather haplotype comparisons as part of an attempt at Y-STR mutation rate estimation.

The TMRCA site will act as a temporary host for the analysis of the data in the FTDNA project until I’ve set up a separate site for this purpose.

As at 30 May 2012 a.m. Dunoon time, there were 24 father-son comparisons possible over 67 markers, which revealed 7 single-step mutations, or a mean mutation rate of 7/24 = 0.29.

An Excel spreadsheet showing the comparisons is at

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB67.xlt

The upper part of the file contains the working data, sans the annoying hyphens that are used by FTDNA. The lower part contains all possible father-son comparisons, both actual and implied by brother-brother comparisons. They are all arranged in the order father, son. Brother comparisons yield two father-son comparisons, and the notional father haplotype is allocated the kit number of 99999.

Update 30-05-2012 pm for 67-marker haplotypes :

No of comparisons : 26

No of mutations       No of observations

0                                   18
1                                     8
2 or more                     0

mean                                                               0.308
95% binomial confidence interval             0.143 – 0.518

To put this in perspective, 80 mutations out of 180 comparisons would provide a 95% confidence interval of 0.252 – 0.368, so there’s a long way to go.

01 June 2012

Here is an Excel spreadsheet for 37-marker comparisons:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB37.xls

The format is the same as for 67 markers, with the working data at the top followed by all possible father-son comparisons (actual and implied). There were  a total of 47 comparisons and the results are summarised as follows:

No of mutations       No of observations

0                                   37
1                                    10
2 or more                      0

mean                                                               0.213
95% binomial confidence interval             0.1070 – 0.3566

Update 19 June 2012

No of                No of father-son    Mean no of mutations    95% binomial
markers           comparisons           per generation                  confidence interval

37                              50                               0.200                       0.100 – 0.337
67                              27                               0.296                        0.138 – 0.502
111                               7                               0.571                         0.184 – 0.901

Update 16 July 2012

Instead of treating 37, 67, and 111 marker haplotypes as three separate studies, I’ve considered instead three separate marker panels and then added them to arrive at an estimate for the mutation rate for 111 markers :

Marker                No of                            Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel                   Comparisons               Rate                             Interval

1-37                      52                                  0.1923                          0.0963 – 0.3253
38-67                   26                                  0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1323
68-111                    7                                  0.2857                          0.0367 – 0.7096
1-111                                                           0.4780                          0.1330 – 1.1672

The work sheets for the three separate marker panels are at

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB1-37.xls

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB38-67.xls

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB68-111.xls

Update 9 August 2012

Montgomerys added (all three are 67 markers)

Marker            No of                   No of                  Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  54                         10                        0.1852                          0.0925 – 0.3143
38-67               28                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1234
68-111                7                           2                        0.2857                          0.0367 – 0.7096
1-111                                                                          0.4709                          0.1292  -  1.1473

So far all mutations are single-step and no fgather-son comparisons show more than one mutation.

Update 1 September 2012

Tilroe son upgrade to 111 markers, Durall father & son added (new, 111 markers), McGuire brothers added (new, 111 markers).

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  57                         10                        0.1754                          0.0875 – 0.2991
38-67               31                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1122
68-111              11                           3                        0.2727                          0.0602 – 0.6097
1-111                                                                         0.4481                          0.1477  -  1.0210

So far there are 12 single-step and 1 two-step mutations. The father-son comparisons all show either no mutations or 1 mutation. The work sheets have been updated at :

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB1-37.xls

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB38-67.xls

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2733445/FSB68-111.xls

Update 7 September 2012

Coleman upgrade to 111 markers added.

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  57                         10                        0.1754                          0.0875 – 0.2991
38-67               31                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1122
68-111              12                           4                        0.3333                          0.0992 – 0.6511
1-111                                                                          0.5087                          0.2352  - 1.0624

So far, out of 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.

Update 26 October 2012

Montgomery upgrade to 111 markers added.

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  57                         10                        0.1754                          0.0875 – 0.2991
38-67               31                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1122
68-111              14                           4                        0.2857                          0.0839 – 0.5810
1-111                                                                          0.4611                           0.1714  - 0.9923

So far, out of 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.

Update 14 March 2013

Moore and Roberts fathers and sons added.

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  59                         10                        0.1695                          0.0844 – 0.2897
38-67               32                           0                        0.0000                        0.0000 – 0.1089
68-111              15                           4                         0.2667                         0.0779 -  0.5510
1-111                                                                           0.4362                          0.1623  – 0.9496

Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.

Update 29 March 2013

Maher extension from 37 to 67 markers.

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  59                         10                        0.1695                          0.0844 – 0.2897
38-67               33                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1058
68-111              15                           4                         0.2667                         0.0779 -  0.5510
1-111                                                                           0.4362                         0.1623  – 0.9465

Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations, or one mutation.

The confidence intervals are calculated using the site at

http://statpages.org/confint.html

 

Update 07 April 2013

Addition of Simpson father and son.

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  60                         10                        0.1667                          0.0829 – 0.2852
38-67               33                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1058
68-111              15                           4                         0.2667                         0.0779 -  0.5510
1-111                                                                           0.4334                         0.1608  – 0.9420

Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation.

Update 19 May 2013

Maher extension to 111 markers.

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  60                         10                        0.1667                          0.0829 – 0.2852
38-67               33                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.1058
68-111              16                           4                         0.2500                         0.0727 -  0.5238
1-111                                                                           0.4167                          0.1608  – 0.9148

Of the 14 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 13 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation.

Update 17 June 2013

Addition of Myrheim and Roberts haploypes

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  64                         11                        0.1719                          0.0891 – 0.2868
38-67               37                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.0949
68-111              18                           4                         0.2222                         0.0641 -  0.4764
1-111                                                                           0.3941                          0.1532  – 0.8581

Of the 15 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 14 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation.

Update 13 July 2013

Addition of McKee family

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  68                         14                        0.2059                          0.1174 – 0.3212
38-67               38                           0                        0.0000                         0.0000 – 0.0925
68-111              18                           4                         0.2222                         0.0641 -  0.4764
1-111                                                                           0.4281                          0.1815  – 0.8901

Of the 18 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 17 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation. The McKee family is interesting because it contains four generations. Moreover, DYS438 starts off at 13, mutates to 12, but mutates back to 13 two generations later. That’s unusual, but it does happen.

Update 24 July 2013

Addition of Doroy brothers up to 37 markers

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  70                         15                        0.2143                       0.1252 – 0.3287
38-67               38                           0                        0.0000                      0.0000 – 0.0925
68-111              18                           4                         0.2222                      0.0641 -  0.4764
1-111                                                                           0.4365                      0.1893  – 0.8976

Of the 19 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 18 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation, with one exception. There were two single-step mutations in one generation in the McKee family. The McKee family is also interesting because it contains four generations. Moreover, DYS438 starts off at 13, mutates to 12, but mutates back to 13 two generations later. That’s unusual, but it does happen.

Update 17 August 2013

Addition of McKee 294630

Marker            No of                    No of                 Mutation                     95% Confidence
Panel               Comparisons      Mutations         Rate                             Interval

1-37                  71                           16                        0.2254                       0.1346 – 0.3400
38-67               38                           0                        0.0000                      0.0000 – 0.0925
68-111              18                           4                         0.2222                       0.0641 -  0.4764
1-111                                                                           0.4476                        0.1987  – 0.9089

Of the 20 mutations, there is a single 2-step mutation and 19 1-step mutations. The father-son comparisons have either no mutations or one single-step mutation, with one exception. There were two single-step mutations in one generation in the McKee family. The McKee family is also interesting because it contains four generations. Moreover, DYS438 starts off at 13, mutates to 12, but mutates back to 13 two generations later. That’s unusual, but it does happen.

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