111-Marker mutation rates(4)

The results of the estimation done on 8 June were:

Model data                                                         34 markers, all in the 111-marker test
Sources                                                               Ballantyne et al, Burgarella & Vascues, YHRD
No of mutations                                                888
No of meioses                                                    240417
SS of error term (34 markers)                        0.00019511
R-squared (34 markers)                                  0.426
F-statistic  (34 markers)                                  11.521
Sum of mutation rates (111 markers)            0.432183

Results 1 July 2011

SS of error term (34 markers)                        0.00017187
R-squared (34 markers)                                  0.505
F-statistic  (34 markers)                                  15.845
Sum of mutation rates (111 markers)            0.409573

Results 24 July 2011

SS of error term (34 markers)                         0.00016189
R-squared (34 markers)                                   0.541
F-statistic  (34 markers)                                   18.25
Sum of mutation rates (111 markers)            0.413878

This is starting to look encouraging and a satisfactory fit may be possible in perhaps a month’s time. What seems to have happened is that the fit has improved as more 111-marker results have become known. Nine of the 34 markers included in the fit are in markers 68-111.

A file with the latest fit is at


If you have an old version of Excel, you may have to use this link:


The columns are

A     DYS/DYF code
B     Marker order in 111-marker series
C     Observed M222 vriance
D     Observed L21 variance
E     Model mutation rate
F     Observed mutation rate
G     Square of error term

What’s interesting is that the estimated mutation rates of the much maligned markers CDYa,b are far lower than is commonly suggested, with a higher rate suggested for DYS710 that for CDYa,b.

It would be premature to use these modelled rates for any serious work at this stage.     


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